Scientists are attributing the2018 Kilauea eruption , which destroyed hundreds of place on Hawaii ’s Big Island , to a surprising germ : vivid and sustained rainfall .
Excessive precipitation in the months leading up to the eructation led to the collapse of rough support structure near the caldera ’s magma chamber , causing lava to creep up and burst through the surface , harmonise to newresearchpublished on Wednesday in Nature .
The study , co - author by geologist Jamie Farquharson from the University of Miami , pop the question a new direction of predicting the timing and frequency of volcanic eruptions at Kilauea and other volcanoes . That enunciate , excessive rainfall is one of many possible triggers chair up to an eruption , so this is no crystal ball .
Lava pouring out from Kilauea’s Fissure 8 on 10 May 2025.Image: (USGS)
https://gizmodo.com/this-footage-of-kilauea-lava-pouring-into-the-ocean-is-1826580765
The 2018 lower Puna eruptionbeganin early May . Giant crack opened up along Kilauea ’s depleted East Rift Zone , pumping outalarming volumesof liquid rock . Local residents , peril by toxic fume and encroaching lava , had to take flight their homes . By the time it was all over some four months later , hundreds of social structure were left put down and theHawaiian shoreline was remade .
That rain can influence both seismal activity and vent is something scientists hadpreviouslyconsidered , but these burden were only know to influence areas near the surface . The Modern paper is of import because it suggests rainfall can disquiet structure deeper below .
Ash plumes during the Kilauea eruption as seen from space, as seen along southern shore.Image: (NASA)
“ We bed that change in the water content in the Earth ’s subsurface can activate earthquakes and landslide . Now we jazz that it can also trigger volcanic blast , ” explained Falk Amelung , a co - author of the work and a geophysicist at the University of Miami , in a press release . “ Under press from magma , pissed rock break easier than dry rock . It is as simple as that . ”
The quick suit of the 2018 Kilauea eruption was not roll in the hay , prompting Farquharson and Amelung to investigate the potential drop for precipitation to be a contributor component . Using both ground - base and planet data , the authors chronicled what the newspaper distinguish as “ anomalously high precipitation ” in the calendar month leading up to the clap .
Much of this water trickled down through the volcano ’s subsurface layer , owe to the porous volcanic rock music , fit in to the enquiry . This had the effect of weaken rocks and increasing groundwater insistency deep below the surface , and in the surface area surrounding the magma bedroom . Using models fed by the acquired precipitation data , the authors showed that pressures near the chamber before the 2018 bam were the high in a half - century .
Lava streaming from an active vent during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea..Image: (USGS)
This fluid pressure do to weaken the volcano , causing morphologic failure at depth . Magma forced its means through the weakened rocks , rising upwards until it pierced the surface , according to this interpretation .
Interestingly , this theory also explains why there was n’t significant uplift at the vent in the months lead up to the eruption .
“ An eruption find when the pressure in the magma chamber is high enough to break the surrounding rock and the magma travels to the aerofoil , ” said Amelung . “ This pressurization causes ostentatiousness of the ground by tens of centimeters . As we did not see any significant puffiness in the year prior to the blast , we started to think about alternative explanations . ”
The authors also conducted a historic analysis of Kilauea , looking at archive rain and eruption data run back to 1790 . They found that nearly 60 per centum of eruptions occurred during the rainy time of year , which is shorter than the ironical season .
write in an company news and views article , planetary scientist Michael Manga from the University of California , Berkeley , said the new theory is plausible , but it needs to be taken with a grain of salt give the complexity and multifaceted nature of volcanic activity .
“ The pressure changes figure by their models are humble — smaller than stresses from tides , ” he wrote . “ However , if rocks are already close-fitting to breaking , such change might be sufficient to induct failure . ”
As to whether fault failures can arise from variety to piddle atmospheric pressure , that “ remain incertain , ” said Manga . He proceed :
“ [ The ] first magma to conflagrate from the lower east rift zone in 2018 was one-time , perhaps left over from an early , 1955 bang , mean that the rift zona was already red-hot . As a result , groundwater in the rift zone might have been vapor at shallow profoundness , and at greater depths it could have been a supercritical fluid ( a substance that is not in a distinct liquidity or gas phase , but has properties of both ) . The high squeezability of both vapors and supercritical fluid would damp the magnitude of press changes in the writer ’ model , crap failure less likely . ”
Manga believe the new theory can be tested by look at other archival data to see if similar convention emerge at other volcanoes . If confirmed — still a big “ if ” at this point — the novel research could highlight an under - comprehended sign for prognosticate the timing and frequency of volcanic eruptions .
This is a pertinent enquiry question given the fashion that mood change is already increasing the betting odds of heavy downpours in many emplacement . Fellow Hawaiian island Kauai , for example , coif theU.S. day-to-day rain recordthe calendar month before Kilauea started erupting . It voice bonkers , but global warming might contribute to increase volcanic bodily process — a possibility not lost on the investigator .
“ It has been shown that the melting of ice caps in Iceland lead to change of volcanic productiveness , ” say Farquharson . “ As on-going mood change is predicted to play about changes in rainfall patterns , we expect that this may similarly shape normal of volcanic bodily process . ”
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